MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · WSH · batting 9Keibert Ruiz
Switch hitterTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.346wOBA vs RHP.310xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · NYMJonah Tong
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Stable
5.7projected K27%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jonah Tong's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 50% usage, 95.1 mph, +4.7″ arm side, +19.2″ rise. Keibert Ruiz: wOBA .330 vs league .349 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 50%Changeup: 26% usage, 86.6 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. Keibert Ruiz: wOBA .292 vs league .312 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 26%Cutter: 12% usage, 90.7 mph, -2.3″ arm side, +13.6″ rise. Keibert Ruiz: wOBA .343 vs league .362 (pitcher's edge).Cutter 12%Curveball: 10% usage, 78.2 mph, -5.6″ arm side, -14.9″ rise. Keibert Ruiz: wOBA .268 vs league .288 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Keibert Ruiz's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Keibert Ruiz's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 92.5 mph at 50°Out: 93.4 mph at 47°Out: 74.1 mph at 68°Single: 97.6 mph at 15°Out: 83.9 mph at 10°Out: 88.6 mph at 25°Single: 98.7 mph at 11°Out: 82.2 mph at 45°Out: 79.6 mph at 24°Out: 90.6 mph at 63°Out: 100.5 mph at 1°Out: 75.5 mph at 35°Out: 89.4 mph at -17°Out: 90.3 mph at -35°Single: 96.2 mph at 12°Out: 78.9 mph at 35°Out: 77.7 mph at 82°Out: 97.1 mph at 2°Out: 80.7 mph at 50°Single: 100.5 mph at 11°Out: 73.6 mph at -20°Single: 62.4 mph at -45°Out: 55.0 mph at 47°Double: 98.4 mph at 26°Single: 88.8 mph at -5°Home run: 104.6 mph at 29°Out: 45.8 mph at -47°Out: 85.8 mph at -24°Out: 87.6 mph at -1°Out: 65.3 mph at 51°Out: 99.0 mph at 34°Out: 85.9 mph at 57°Single: 103.8 mph at 2°Double: 103.3 mph at 14°Out: 98.2 mph at 32°Out: 81.9 mph at -21°Single: 101.6 mph at 16°Single: 86.5 mph at 13°Out: 90.4 mph at -8°Out: 85.1 mph at 44°
33% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.4%61.4%-0.0
2+ total bases33.8%33.6%+0.2
Home run6.3%6.2%+0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Keibert Ruiz hits
Where they meet

.300 xwOBA for Keibert Ruiz in the spots Jonah Tong throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .316 (-17 points). His best spot against righties is down-middle, and Jonah Tong puts 3% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jonah Tong · where he throws to left-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 100% per swing2%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing6%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing3%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing11%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing3%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing6%21% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing21%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing11%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing9%16% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing16%
All · 176 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%14% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters14%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%30% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters30%15% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters15%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Fastball · 73 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%18% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters18%21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%
Cutter · 44 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%12% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters12%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters16% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters16%30% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters30%
Changeup · 43 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%19% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters19%
Curveball · 16 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Keibert Ruiz · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .297 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 20 pitches seen.284xwOBA .212 shrunk (raw .023 on 6 PA) · league .307 · 15 pitches seen.212xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .357 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 17 pitches seen.291xwOBA .369 shrunk (raw .394 on 13 PA) · league .342 · 29 pitches seen.369xwOBA .339 shrunk (raw .303 on 16 PA) · league .386 · 36 pitches seen.339xwOBA .358 shrunk (raw .422 on 7 PA) · league .321 · 16 pitches seen.358xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .294 on 11 PA) · league .308 · 17 pitches seen.301xwOBA .468 shrunk (raw .550 on 17 PA) · league .351 · 31 pitches seen.468xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .324 on 8 PA) · league .292 · 15 pitches seen.305xwOBA .339 shrunk (raw .289 on 9 PA) · league .377 · 63 pitches seen.339xwOBA .234 shrunk (raw .155 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 24 pitches seen.234xwOBA .210 shrunk (raw .179 on 21 PA) · league .263 · 74 pitches seen.210xwOBA .282 shrunk (raw .290 on 13 PA) · league .274 · 74 pitches seen.282
vs RHP · 431 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 21% of 19 swings · league 22%21%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 20%8%Whiff 0% of 13 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 5% of 21 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 0% of 27 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 7% of 14 swings · league 14%7%Whiff 8% of 25 swings · league 13%8%Whiff 0% of 13 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 35% of 17 swings · league 28%35%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 23% of 35 swings · league 32%23%Whiff 15% of 33 swings · league 49%15%
vs RHP · 431 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 95% of 20 pitches · league 62%95%Swings at 80% of 15 pitches · league 72%80%Swings at 77% of 17 pitches · league 66%77%Swings at 72% of 29 pitches · league 70%72%Swings at 75% of 36 pitches · league 76%75%Swings at 56% of 16 pitches · league 70%56%Swings at 82% of 17 pitches · league 65%82%Swings at 81% of 31 pitches · league 68%81%Swings at 87% of 15 pitches · league 60%87%Swings at 27% of 63 pitches · league 24%27%Swings at 33% of 24 pitches · league 34%33%Swings at 47% of 74 pitches · league 40%47%Swings at 45% of 74 pitches · league 32%45%
vs RHP · 431 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Keibert Ruiz against each of Jonah Tong's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball50%95.1+5″ / +19″.330.3497.7%17.7%339About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup26%86.6+14″ / +9″.292.31215.7%26.1%243About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter12%90.7-2″ / +14″.343.3627.3%16.6%223About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball10%78.2-6″ / -15″.268.28819.1%28.7%83About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Keibert Ruiz · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.077.077.077.069.2140.0%0.0%5.9%86.3100.50.0%15.4%30.8%
Last 15 G1544.273.273.477.327.2856.8%0.0%16.9%87.2104.65.0%30.0%35.0%
Last 30 G3094.318.362.466.377.3377.4%6.4%15.1%87.5108.72.5%35.0%36.2%
90 days47143.293.336.429.350.3135.6%6.3%11.4%87.2108.72.4%34.4%40.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 125 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 26%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.667.667.667.600.5430.0%0.0%16.7%96.698.70.0%66.7%66.7%
Last 15 G57.500.571.500.486.4220.0%0.0%9.1%85.398.70.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 30 G912.500.583.500.492.4230.0%8.3%5.6%86.698.710.0%30.0%40.0%
90 days1930.259.333.370.317.28713.3%6.7%15.9%85.4101.68.7%26.1%26.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 23 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 17%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.188.188.188.169.2760.0%0.0%8.7%88.2100.50.0%25.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1551.300.314.480.349.3045.9%0.0%16.0%86.9104.64.3%30.4%34.8%
Last 30 G30106.337.387.469.390.3476.6%6.6%14.1%87.4108.73.3%34.4%36.7%
90 days48173.288.335.419.344.3096.9%6.4%12.1%86.9108.73.4%33.1%38.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 148 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 25%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 14%
Keibert Ruiz · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating66Above average
Last 100 pitches42trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.347 / .331running 16 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter82.392.550.012Out
Sep 25LHPSinker93.893.447.017Out
Sep 25RHPFastball91.974.168.000Out
Sep 25LHPSweeper82.197.615.758Single
Sep 22RHPFastball94.583.910.461Out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.188.625.087Out
Sep 22LHPSinker89.298.711.855Single
Sep 21RHPSinker94.182.245.031Out
Sep 21RHPFastball97.479.624.476Out
Sep 21RHPChangeup84.890.663.003Out
Sep 20RHPSweeper80.1100.51.453Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup87.475.535.135Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411000
Sep 22311000
Sep 21300000
Sep 20100000
Sep 19511000
Sep 16200000
Sep 13411000
Sep 12434000
Sep 9414100
Sep 7300000

Two strikes

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPwith two strikes
Jonah Tong with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%42%16.7%14.3%18.3%
Changeup23%35%35.0%27.6%18.4%
Cutter23%14%16.7%16.7%18.7%
Curveball10%10%60.0%37.5%20.7%
Keibert Ruiz bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Keibert Ruiz with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%29.3%41.3%
Whiff%15.4%21.6%
Contact%84.6%78.4%
Chase%58.3%39.4%
wOBA.241.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes14.2%19.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.314
K%8.3%
BB%5.3%
Whiff%7.4%
Barrel%2.5%
Hard-hit%27.7%
Avg EV86.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

143 PA
wOBA.346
xwOBA vs this mix.310against pitches like his
RV/1000.47
Hard-hit%29.5%
K%7.5%
BB%6.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jonah TongRHP · NYM vs WSH6 days' rest
5.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 18.3%18%≤34 strikeouts: 14.7%15%45 strikeouts: 16.7%17%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 12.8%13%78 strikeouts: 9.2%9%89+ strikeouts: 12.5%13%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.9%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%13.6%
Velo90.3
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball44%11494.512.1%
Cutter23%11090.111.3%
Changeup23%9887.418.0%
Curveball10%8178.715.4%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209522%8%35%.333
Sep 148326%14%22%.220
Sep 78733%18%19%.324

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 11 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Keibert Ruiz: every projection we've made →