MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 26, 2026
12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · DET · batting 4Eduardo Valencia
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerHot
.419wOBA vs RHP.390xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · PITKirby Yates
Throws rightBTB Stuff 85Stable
2.4projected K23%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Kirby Yates's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 58% usage, 93.0 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +13.9″ rise. Eduardo Valencia: wOBA .371 vs league .352 (hitter's edge).Fastball 58%Splitter: 40% usage, 86.0 mph, +12.7″ arm side, -0.7″ rise. Eduardo Valencia: wOBA .300 vs league .282 (hitter's edge).Splitter 40%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Eduardo Valencia's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Eduardo Valencia's last 40 balls in playHit (18)Out (22)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 63.9 mph at 28°Double: 106.3 mph at 13°Out: 87.1 mph at 8°Out: 104.8 mph at 30°Out: 61.3 mph at 0°Double: 82.7 mph at 8°Out: 96.8 mph at 16°Single: 88.2 mph at 13°Double: 101.2 mph at -1°Single: 91.7 mph at 18°Single: 97.4 mph at 16°Single: 106.9 mph at 3°Out: 97.2 mph at 36°Out: 57.7 mph at 13°Single: 100.4 mph at 7°Double: 99.8 mph at 19°Out: 96.3 mph at 45°Out: 93.1 mph at 59°Out: 103.2 mph at 1°Double: 107.3 mph at 20°Single: 72.3 mph at 24°Double: 98.4 mph at 18°Out: 83.4 mph at -6°Single: 91.3 mph at 24°Out: 103.2 mph at 35°Single: 91.9 mph at 23°Out: 97.0 mph at 39°Out: 79.3 mph at 12°Out: 91.8 mph at 0°Single: 71.5 mph at 10°Out: 101.3 mph at -4°Out: 75.7 mph at -4°Out: 91.2 mph at 6°Out: 82.3 mph at 8°Double: 103.8 mph at 27°Single: 106.1 mph at 14°Out: 85.9 mph at 8°Out: 103.1 mph at 2°Out: 67.7 mph at 80°Out: 84.3 mph at 78°
48% hit 95+ mph55% in the sweet spot45% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.0%66.4%-1.4
2+ total bases41.8%43.0%-1.2
Home run14.8%15.1%-0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.7
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.8
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Eduardo Valencia hits
Where they meet

.337 xwOBA for Eduardo Valencia in the spots Kirby Yates throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .303 (+34 points). His best spot against righties is middle-right, and Kirby Yates puts 6% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Kirby Yates · where he throws to right-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing4%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing7%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing6%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing6%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing4%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 60% per swing3%11% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing11%13% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing13%13% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing13%19% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing19%
All · 208 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%19% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters19%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%
Fastball · 138 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%8% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters8%6% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters6%8% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters8%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters33% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters33%33% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters33%
Splitter · 66 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Eduardo Valencia · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .368 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 20 pitches seen.314xwOBA .334 shrunk (raw .441 on 3 PA) · league .307 · 10 pitches seen.334xwOBA .223 shrunk (raw .065 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 8 pitches seen.223xwOBA .406 shrunk (raw .598 on 4 PA) · league .342 · 12 pitches seen.406xwOBA .413 shrunk (raw .454 on 8 PA) · league .386 · 19 pitches seen.413xwOBA .407 shrunk (raw .522 on 9 PA) · league .321 · 21 pitches seen.407xwOBA .313 shrunk (raw .373 on 1 PA) · league .308 · 10 pitches seen.313xwOBA .404 shrunk (raw .618 on 3 PA) · league .351 · 9 pitches seen.404xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .142 on 4 PA) · league .292 · 10 pitches seen.254xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .362 on 10 PA) · league .377 · 36 pitches seen.370xwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .480 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 16 pitches seen.335xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .466 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 18 pitches seen.314xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .363 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 74 pitches seen.314
vs RHP · 263 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 22%13%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 20%14%Whiff 60% of 5 swings · league 19%60%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 10%17%Whiff 0% of 14 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 18% of 17 swings · league 11%18%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 14%14%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 13%14%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 28%18%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 24%25%Whiff 30% of 10 swings · league 32%30%Whiff 50% of 18 swings · league 49%50%
vs RHP · 263 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 80% of 20 pitches · league 62%80%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 72%70%Swings at 63% of 8 pitches · league 66%63%Swings at 100% of 12 pitches · league 70%100%Swings at 74% of 19 pitches · league 76%74%Swings at 81% of 21 pitches · league 70%81%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 65%70%Swings at 78% of 9 pitches · league 68%78%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 60%70%Swings at 31% of 36 pitches · league 24%31%Swings at 50% of 16 pitches · league 34%50%Swings at 56% of 18 pitches · league 40%56%Swings at 24% of 74 pitches · league 32%24%
vs RHP · 263 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Eduardo Valencia against each of Kirby Yates's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball58%93.0+14″ / +14″.371.35212.9%13.9%22About league average vs these
Splitter40%86.0+13″ / -1″.300.28230.6%32.6%2Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Eduardo Valencia · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.556.636.667.568.6260.0%18.2%18.5%91.2106.911.1%66.7%55.6%
Last 15 G1336.419.486.548.461.4885.6%11.1%20.6%90.5106.910.3%51.7%51.7%
Last 30 G2459.340.397.472.387.42211.9%8.5%19.8%87.9106.915.2%50.0%43.5%
90 days3073.379.431.576.439.40912.3%6.8%20.9%88.2106.914.0%50.9%42.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 28%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.500.571.833.586.47228.6%14.3%40.0%91.1106.30.0%25.0%100.0%
Last 15 G1219.294.368.471.366.34426.3%5.3%25.6%88.9107.38.3%33.3%58.3%
Last 30 G2543.293.326.585.384.30437.2%2.3%29.2%91.3112.48.0%40.0%56.0%
90 days3356.315.339.667.437.32335.7%1.8%28.5%91.1112.411.8%41.2%58.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 34 balls in play
Ground 32%Line drive 35%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.533.611.733.575.56611.1%16.7%24.3%91.2106.97.7%53.8%69.2%
Last 15 G1555.375.444.521.428.43912.7%9.1%22.5%90.0107.39.8%46.3%53.7%
Last 30 G30102.319.366.521.386.37222.5%5.9%24.1%89.1112.412.7%46.5%47.9%
90 days39129.350.391.617.438.37122.5%4.7%24.5%89.3112.413.2%47.3%48.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 91 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 31%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 7%
Eduardo Valencia · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating98Elite
Last 100 pitches100steady
wOBA / xwOBA.441 / .404running 38 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker97.863.928.725Single
Sep 25LHPFastball89.8106.313.883Double
Sep 22LHPChangeup85.387.18.451Force out
Sep 22RHPSlider86.2104.8301.645Out
Sep 22RHPSinker96.961.30.057Out
Sep 21LHPCurveball80.882.78.369Double
Sep 21RHPCutter91.996.816.679Out
Sep 21LHPChangeup81.788.213.902Single
Sep 21RHPCutter90.7101.2-1.373Double
Sep 20RHPSinker93.191.718.560Single
Sep 20RHPFastball91.897.416.679Single
Sep 20RHPCurveball81.5106.93.507Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25523030
Sep 23100001
Sep 22400001
Sep 21435000
Sep 20433000
Sep 19100000
Sep 18523001
Sep 15512010
Sep 12534010
Sep 8411000

Two strikes

Kirby Yates PIT · RHPwith two strikes
Kirby Yates with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball67%67%22.4%19.6%18.3%
Splitter31%31%26.3%11.6%21.3%
Sweeper2%2%0.0%0.0%20.7%
Eduardo Valencia bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Eduardo Valencia with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.4%43.3%
Whiff%20.7%23.5%
Contact%79.3%76.5%
Chase%38.6%39.4%
wOBA.263.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes16.7%18.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.364
K%22.7%
BB%6.4%
Whiff%12.1%
Barrel%6.9%
Hard-hit%29.8%
Avg EV88.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

73 PA
wOBA.419
xwOBA vs this mix.390against pitches like his
RV/1001.93
Hard-hit%36.8%
K%15.1%
BB%5.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Kirby YatesRHP · PIT vs DET3 days' rest · short rest
2.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 9.9 batters over 2.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 77.1%77%≤34 strikeouts: 12.8%13%45 strikeouts: 6.3%6%56 strikeouts: 2.5%3%67 strikeouts: 0.9%1%78 strikeouts: 0.3%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.2%
BB%10.1%
Whiff%11.0%
Velo88.7
BTB Stuff85
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball66%8990.89.1%
Splitter32%7884.312.3%
Sweeper2%8375.00.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Kirby Yates PIT · RHPvsDET lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Eduardo Valencia: every projection we've made →