MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIL · batting 9David Hamilton
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedCold
.302wOBA vs LHP.275xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · STLQuinn Mathews
Throws leftBTB Stuff 92Stable
5.1projected K20%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Quinn Mathews's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.3″ arm side, +16.4″ rise. David Hamilton: wOBA .333 vs league .346 (about even).Fastball 39%Slider: 23% usage, 84.9 mph, -3.2″ arm side, +1.3″ rise. David Hamilton: wOBA .264 vs league .276 (about even).Slider 23%Changeup: 17% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. David Hamilton: wOBA .270 vs league .283 (about even).Changeup 17%Curveball: 13% usage, 75.6 mph, -9.6″ arm side, -12.2″ rise. David Hamilton: wOBA .258 vs league .270 (about even).Curveball 13%Sinker: 9% usage, 92.7 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +12.3″ rise. David Hamilton: wOBA .336 vs league .348 (about even).Sinker 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is David Hamilton's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

David Hamilton's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 97.5 mph at 11°Single: 100.5 mph at 15°Out: 65.4 mph at 38°Single: 82.8 mph at 17°Out: 80.3 mph at -8°Out: 87.9 mph at 35°Out: 79.6 mph at 1°Out: 63.9 mph at 67°Single: 86.0 mph at 3°Single: 96.2 mph at 10°Out: 90.1 mph at 43°Out: 91.1 mph at 4°Out: 81.1 mph at 72°Out: 93.4 mph at 3°Out: 64.5 mph at -14°Out: 83.5 mph at 28°Out: 100.1 mph at 22°Single: 61.1 mph at -21°Single: 90.6 mph at 11°Single: 93.1 mph at 12°Triple: 96.3 mph at -3°Out: 70.7 mph at 53°Out: 97.5 mph at 21°Single: 25.2 mph at -52°Out: 101.6 mph at -2°Single: 104.1 mph at 18°Out: 86.1 mph at 4°Out: 87.1 mph at 3°Out: 91.8 mph at 1°Out: 72.8 mph at 75°Out: 97.2 mph at -18°Out: 73.0 mph at -21°Single: 102.1 mph at 11°Out: 86.4 mph at 51°Out: 34.4 mph at -30°Single: 27.2 mph at -64°Double: 102.9 mph at 20°Out: 91.6 mph at -16°Single: 31.9 mph at -58°Out: 83.3 mph at 28°
28% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit53.0%53.3%-0.3
2+ total bases25.0%25.8%-0.8
Home run4.2%5.1%-0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where David Hamilton hits
Where they meet

.276 xwOBA for David Hamilton in the spots Quinn Mathews throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .300 (-24 points). His best spot against lefties is middle-left, and Quinn Mathews puts 7% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Quinn Mathews · where he throws to left-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing3%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing4%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing7%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing7%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing7%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing9%29% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 53% per swing29%12% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing12%
All · 227 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%42% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters42%13% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters13%
Slider · 78 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%19% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters19%17% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17%11% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters11%
Sinker · 64 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%24% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters24%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%14% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters14%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Fastball · 55 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%9% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%48% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters48%13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%
Curveball · 23 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

David Hamilton · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .392 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 4 pitches seen.254xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .207 on 5 PA) · league .296 · 11 pitches seen.270xwOBA .249 shrunk (raw .228 on 3 PA) · league .254 · 8 pitches seen.249xwOBA .355 shrunk (raw .545 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 11 pitches seen.355xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .084 on 3 PA) · league .385 · 7 pitches seen.325xwOBA .377 shrunk (raw .527 on 3 PA) · league .340 · 7 pitches seen.377xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .311 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 6 pitches seen.278xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .088 on 5 PA) · league .350 · 8 pitches seen.273xwOBA .327 shrunk (raw .494 on 2 PA) · league .299 · 5 pitches seen.327xwOBA .279 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 7 pitches seen.279xwOBA .352 shrunk (raw .375 on 3 PA) · league .346 · 16 pitches seen.352xwOBA .225 shrunk (raw .073 on 5 PA) · league .289 · 39 pitches seen.225xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .120 on 2 PA) · league .257 · 14 pitches seen.237
vs LHP · 143 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 21%38%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 23%17%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 43% of 7 swings · league 14%43%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 25%100%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 29%13%Whiff 63% of 8 swings · league 48%63%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 34%0%
vs LHP · 143 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 50% of 4 pitches · league 63%50%Swings at 73% of 11 pitches · league 71%73%Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 64%75%Swings at 46% of 11 pitches · league 67%46%Swings at 57% of 7 pitches · league 76%57%Swings at 86% of 7 pitches · league 72%86%Swings at 50% of 6 pitches · league 59%50%Swings at 88% of 8 pitches · league 68%88%Swings at 80% of 5 pitches · league 66%80%Swings at 14% of 7 pitches · league 30%14%Swings at 50% of 16 pitches · league 26%50%Swings at 21% of 39 pitches · league 31%21%Swings at 43% of 14 pitches · league 41%43%
vs LHP · 143 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

David Hamilton against each of Quinn Mathews's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%93.4+5″ / +16″.333.34621.7%20.6%35About league average vs these
Slider23%84.9-3″ / +1″.264.27638.0%33.2%33About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup17%83.0+11″ / +4″.270.28335.6%32.0%4Little history vs this shape
Curveball13%75.6-10″ / -12″.258.27032.0%27.7%7Little history vs this shape
Sinker9%92.7+11″ / +12″.336.34814.1%13.8%44About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
David Hamilton · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.000.167.000.117.15766.7%0.0%27.3%79.679.60.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G811.100.182.100.145.13345.5%0.0%27.8%76.590.10.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 30 G1930.241.267.379.312.23823.3%0.0%19.1%77.3102.94.5%18.2%31.8%
90 days2540.216.237.351.289.24627.5%0.0%22.1%75.3102.93.6%17.9%35.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 28 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 25%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.429.500.571.469.47612.5%12.5%6.2%85.7100.50.0%33.3%50.0%
Last 15 G1436.294.333.382.318.31527.8%5.6%19.0%86.1104.10.0%33.3%41.7%
Last 30 G2669.266.319.328.293.31718.8%7.2%15.4%84.3104.10.0%31.4%41.2%
90 days45121.269.336.333.316.30519.8%9.1%18.3%84.2104.61.2%32.6%37.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 86 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 28%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.250.357.333.318.33935.7%7.1%14.8%84.9100.50.0%28.6%42.9%
Last 15 G1547.250.298.318.278.27331.9%4.3%21.0%84.5104.10.0%27.6%34.5%
Last 30 G3099.258.303.344.298.29320.2%5.1%16.4%82.2104.11.4%27.4%38.4%
90 days50161.255.312.338.309.29121.7%6.8%19.1%82.0104.61.8%28.9%36.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 114 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 27%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 8%
David Hamilton · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating28Below average
Last 100 pitches7trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.294 / .293results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter88.897.511.821Double
Sep 25RHPFastball92.0100.515.716Single
Sep 23RHPFastball91.365.438.510Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.282.817.910Single
Sep 22RHPCutter91.580.3-8.120Out
Sep 22RHPFastball98.387.935.035Out
Sep 19LHPCutter83.079.61.212Out
Sep 17RHPCutter93.263.967.000Out
Sep 17RHPFastball98.386.03.357Single
Sep 15RHPFastball92.696.210.648Single
Sep 15LHPSlider84.090.143.015Out
Sep 12RHPSlider82.091.14.391Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25423001
Sep 23300011
Sep 22311000
Sep 19300002
Sep 18100001
Sep 17211000
Sep 15411002
Sep 12400002
Sep 11200000
Sep 6400011

Two strikes

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPwith two strikes
Quinn Mathews with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider23%32%28.3%15.9%22.2%
Fastball39%32%22.4%15.0%18.4%
Changeup17%22%25.9%12.5%18.3%
Curveball13%10%18.8%16.7%20.9%
Sinker9%4%0.0%27.3%17.8%
David Hamilton bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
David Hamilton with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%52.6%44.3%
Whiff%31.7%23.6%
Contact%68.3%76.4%
Chase%39.5%38.0%
wOBA.198.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes34.9%26.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.291
K%22.4%
BB%6.8%
Whiff%9.1%
Barrel%2.4%
Hard-hit%20.3%
Avg EV82.8

Against left-handers, last 90 days

40 PA
wOBA.302
xwOBA vs this mix.275against pitches like his
RV/100-0.81
Hard-hit%19.2%
K%25.1%
BB%6.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Quinn MathewsLHP · STL vs MIL6 days' rest
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.3 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.7%26%≤34 strikeouts: 17.2%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.7%15%67 strikeouts: 10.7%11%78 strikeouts: 6.8%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.5%8%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.4%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%10.8%
Velo87.3
BTB Stuff92
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball39%10593.49.2%
Slider23%8784.811.7%
Changeup17%6783.019.2%
Curveball13%9475.76.7%
Sinker9%9292.85.9%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209610%9%38%.327
Sep 149932%14%4%.231
Sep 89916%10%32%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.David Hamilton: every projection we've made →