MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIL · batting 5Gary Sánchez
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.322wOBA vs LHP.313xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · STLQuinn Mathews
Throws leftBTB Stuff 92Stable
5.1projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Quinn Mathews's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.3″ arm side, +16.4″ rise. Gary Sánchez: wOBA .354 vs league .353 (about even).Fastball 39%Slider: 23% usage, 84.9 mph, -3.2″ arm side, +1.3″ rise. Gary Sánchez: wOBA .320 vs league .320 (about even).Slider 23%Changeup: 17% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Gary Sánchez: wOBA .309 vs league .309 (about even).Changeup 17%Curveball: 13% usage, 75.6 mph, -9.6″ arm side, -12.2″ rise. Gary Sánchez: wOBA .297 vs league .297 (about even).Curveball 13%Sinker: 9% usage, 92.7 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +12.3″ rise. Gary Sánchez: wOBA .363 vs league .363 (about even).Sinker 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Gary Sánchez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Gary Sánchez's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 96.9 mph at 24°Out: 80.4 mph at -6°Single: 75.5 mph at 7°Out: 99.2 mph at -8°Out: 62.9 mph at -43°Out: 87.4 mph at -7°Single: 72.2 mph at 28°Out: 86.0 mph at 45°Out: 88.3 mph at 27°Out: 97.3 mph at 7°Out: 85.9 mph at -22°Single: 69.0 mph at 27°Double: 106.2 mph at -2°Out: 100.8 mph at 19°Home run: 99.7 mph at 31°Out: 78.0 mph at -25°Out: 76.9 mph at -9°Out: 58.5 mph at 19°Out: 77.6 mph at 72°Out: 68.5 mph at -42°Out: 65.5 mph at 1°Out: 92.8 mph at 9°Out: 91.0 mph at 71°Out: 96.7 mph at -27°Out: 82.4 mph at -8°Out: 84.0 mph at 52°Out: 107.6 mph at -1°Double: 88.5 mph at 18°Out: 70.0 mph at -5°Out: 74.7 mph at -20°Out: 77.0 mph at 59°Out: 56.8 mph at -49°Out: 93.4 mph at 11°Out: 100.5 mph at 2°Out: 98.3 mph at -5°Single: 80.2 mph at 13°Home run: 102.5 mph at 27°Double: 112.3 mph at 4°Double: 107.2 mph at 16°Out: 87.5 mph at 69°
33% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.6%54.1%+0.4
2+ total bases33.1%31.6%+1.5
Home run13.2%10.4%+2.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+2.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Gary Sánchez hits
Where they meet

.305 xwOBA for Gary Sánchez in the spots Quinn Mathews throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .303 (+2 points). His best spot against lefties is middle, and Quinn Mathews puts 6% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Quinn Mathews · where he throws to right-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing2%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing4%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing3%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing6%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing6%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing4%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing8%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing6%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing6%14% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing14%19% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing19%18% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 55% per swing18%
All · 559 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%24% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters24%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%
Fastball · 249 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%10% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters10%9% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters9%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%22% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters22%47% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters47%
Changeup · 123 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters8%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%8% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters8%31% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters31%13% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters13%
Slider · 101 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%10% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%9% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters9%26% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters26%16% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters16%
Curveball · 82 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Gary Sánchez · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .214 shrunk (raw .041 on 2 PA) · league .243 · 8 pitches seen.214xwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .077 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 10 pitches seen.252xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .464 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 7 pitches seen.284xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .046 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 6 pitches seen.242xwOBA .475 shrunk (raw .628 on 7 PA) · league .385 · 16 pitches seen.475xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .142 on 2 PA) · league .340 · 14 pitches seen.312xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .347 on 4 PA) · league .273 · 17 pitches seen.291xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .222 on 5 PA) · league .350 · 13 pitches seen.312xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .189 on 3 PA) · league .299 · 8 pitches seen.277xwOBA .362 shrunk (raw .482 on 6 PA) · league .302 · 17 pitches seen.362xwOBA .393 shrunk (raw .464 on 8 PA) · league .346 · 36 pitches seen.393xwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .465 on 6 PA) · league .289 · 52 pitches seen.348xwOBA .171 shrunk (raw .057 on 9 PA) · league .257 · 41 pitches seen.171
vs LHP · 245 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 50% of 4 swings · league 19%50%Whiff 40% of 5 swings · league 21%40%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 44% of 9 swings · league 17%44%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 14%22%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 16%25%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 25%17%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 29%33%Whiff 50% of 16 swings · league 48%50%Whiff 47% of 17 swings · league 34%47%
vs LHP · 245 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 50% of 8 pitches · league 63%50%Swings at 50% of 10 pitches · league 71%50%Swings at 43% of 7 pitches · league 64%43%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 67%83%Swings at 56% of 16 pitches · league 76%56%Swings at 29% of 14 pitches · league 72%29%Swings at 53% of 17 pitches · league 59%53%Swings at 69% of 13 pitches · league 68%69%Swings at 50% of 8 pitches · league 66%50%Swings at 35% of 17 pitches · league 30%35%Swings at 8% of 36 pitches · league 26%8%Swings at 31% of 52 pitches · league 31%31%Swings at 42% of 41 pitches · league 41%42%
vs LHP · 245 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Gary Sánchez against each of Quinn Mathews's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%93.4+5″ / +16″.354.35317.7%17.3%162About league average vs these
Slider23%84.9-3″ / +1″.320.32036.9%30.2%100About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup17%83.0+11″ / +4″.309.30937.6%28.8%50About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball13%75.6-10″ / -12″.297.29733.1%27.4%25About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker9%92.7+11″ / +12″.363.36316.3%16.4%213About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Gary Sánchez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.333.556.333.450.3660.0%33.3%12.5%83.999.20.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1125.150.320.300.292.30112.0%20.0%35.3%85.1107.65.9%35.3%35.3%
Last 30 G2149.186.286.372.292.27620.4%10.2%32.1%85.9112.36.1%33.3%33.3%
90 days2762.192.323.404.323.31917.7%14.5%30.9%87.9112.37.3%39.0%34.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 41 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 20%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.111.200.111.160.21750.0%10.0%30.8%85.797.30.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1020.167.250.222.222.21940.0%10.0%32.1%84.1106.20.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 30 G2147.205.340.359.325.28034.0%17.0%28.6%85.9106.24.5%27.3%31.8%
90 days2557.200.368.356.339.30728.1%21.1%26.5%86.0106.23.6%28.6%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 28 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 18%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.200.368.200.289.28326.3%21.1%23.8%84.699.20.0%30.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1545.158.289.263.260.26424.4%15.6%33.9%84.7107.63.7%29.6%29.6%
Last 30 G3096.195.312.366.308.27827.1%13.5%30.4%85.9112.35.5%30.9%32.7%
90 days36119.196.345.381.331.31322.7%17.6%28.8%87.1112.35.8%34.8%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 69 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 19%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 14%
Gary Sánchez · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating51Average
Last 100 pitches50steady
wOBA / xwOBA.332 / .318results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPCutter90.796.924.351Single
Sep 24LHPSinker93.880.4-6.092Out
Sep 19LHPChangeup87.675.57.233Single
Sep 19LHPChangeup85.299.2-8.223Out
Sep 19LHPChangeup87.462.9-43.152Out
Sep 17RHPCutter91.287.4-7.142Out
Sep 17RHPSlider89.272.228.759Single
Sep 13RHPSlider92.586.045.006Out
Sep 13LHPCutter91.088.327.082Out
Sep 13RHPFastball97.697.37.564Out
Sep 6RHPCutter86.285.9-22.068Out
Sep 5RHPFastball95.169.027.885Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24511012
Sep 19311000
Sep 17311001
Sep 13400001
Sep 8400031
Sep 6100000
Sep 5423011
Sep 2200010
Aug 31100001
Aug 30414112

Two strikes

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPwith two strikes
Quinn Mathews with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider23%32%28.3%15.9%22.2%
Fastball39%32%22.4%15.0%18.4%
Changeup17%22%25.9%12.5%18.3%
Curveball13%10%18.8%16.7%20.9%
Sinker9%4%0.0%27.3%17.8%
Gary Sánchez bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Gary Sánchez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.5%41.4%
Whiff%20.5%22.0%
Contact%79.5%78.0%
Chase%39.4%40.7%
wOBA.269.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.9%23.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.324
K%23.8%
BB%10.8%
Whiff%10.4%
Barrel%5.0%
Hard-hit%26.4%
Avg EV89.1

Against left-handers, last 90 days

62 PA
wOBA.322
xwOBA vs this mix.313against pitches like his
RV/1000.45
Hard-hit%25.4%
K%19.6%
BB%15.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Quinn MathewsLHP · STL vs MIL6 days' rest
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.3 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.7%26%≤34 strikeouts: 17.2%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.7%15%67 strikeouts: 10.7%11%78 strikeouts: 6.8%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.5%8%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.4%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%10.8%
Velo87.3
BTB Stuff92
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball39%10593.49.2%
Slider23%8784.811.7%
Changeup17%6783.019.2%
Curveball13%9475.76.7%
Sinker9%9292.85.9%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209610%9%38%.327
Sep 149932%14%4%.231
Sep 89916%10%32%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Gary Sánchez: every projection we've made →