MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · MIL · batting 6Luis Lara
Switch hitterTalent grade DBalancedCold
.281wOBA vs LHP.279xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · STLQuinn Mathews
Throws leftBTB Stuff 92Stable
5.0projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Quinn Mathews's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.3″ arm side, +16.4″ rise. Luis Lara: wOBA .329 vs league .337 (about even).Fastball 39%Slider: 23% usage, 84.9 mph, -3.2″ arm side, +1.3″ rise. Luis Lara: wOBA .306 vs league .314 (about even).Slider 23%Changeup: 17% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Luis Lara: wOBA .301 vs league .310 (about even).Changeup 17%Curveball: 13% usage, 75.6 mph, -9.6″ arm side, -12.2″ rise. Luis Lara: wOBA .314 vs league .323 (about even).Curveball 13%Sinker: 9% usage, 92.7 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +12.3″ rise. Luis Lara: wOBA .349 vs league .358 (about even).Sinker 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Luis Lara's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Luis Lara's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 88.4 mph at 30°Single: 95.8 mph at 16°Out: 76.6 mph at -45°Out: 81.3 mph at 22°Out: 99.1 mph at -21°Out: 100.8 mph at 17°Single: 74.2 mph at 20°Out: 94.7 mph at -28°Out: 77.9 mph at 59°Out: 87.5 mph at 60°Single: 58.6 mph at -61°Out: 90.1 mph at 6°Out: 42.9 mph at 34°Out: 61.5 mph at -53°Out: 90.7 mph at -30°Out: 71.7 mph at 43°Single: 64.1 mph at 14°Out: 103.0 mph at -2°Out: 93.4 mph at 40°Out: 66.5 mph at -4°Double: 89.8 mph at 15°Out: 104.9 mph at -20°Out: 43.1 mph at 62°Out: 102.7 mph at 2°Out: 59.6 mph at 46°Single: 103.7 mph at 4°Single: 100.5 mph at -13°Out: 100.0 mph at -18°Out: 82.7 mph at -9°Out: 68.8 mph at -4°Single: 74.9 mph at 16°Out: 96.8 mph at 22°Single: 103.0 mph at 3°Out: 83.2 mph at 47°Out: 59.4 mph at -66°Out: 84.1 mph at 63°Out: 106.6 mph at -15°Single: 94.5 mph at 7°Out: 56.9 mph at -7°Single: 80.1 mph at 11°
30% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.4%59.6%+0.8
2+ total bases30.0%29.6%+0.4
Home run6.0%6.4%-0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.0
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Luis Lara against each of Quinn Mathews's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%93.4+5″ / +16″.329.33711.4%17.2%12About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider23%84.9-3″ / +1″.306.31421.0%28.5%15About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup17%83.0+11″ / +4″.301.31023.8%32.6%4Little history vs this shape
Curveball13%75.6-10″ / -12″.314.32318.8%26.2%5Little history vs this shape
Sinker9%92.7+11″ / +12″.349.35811.1%16.2%20About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Luis Lara · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.111.111.111.100.16533.3%0.0%25.0%82.499.10.0%16.7%16.7%
Last 15 G1331.200.226.233.208.23222.6%3.2%14.8%81.9104.90.0%26.1%21.7%
Last 30 G2455.264.291.340.296.25118.2%3.6%12.0%86.1107.70.0%32.6%27.9%
90 days3570.227.271.303.271.26717.1%5.7%12.8%87.9107.70.0%38.9%27.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 54 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 24%Fly ball 9%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G311.200.273.200.227.3199.1%9.1%5.9%80.6100.80.0%22.2%44.4%
Last 15 G1331.185.258.185.213.23429.0%6.5%11.8%85.0106.60.0%36.8%31.6%
Last 30 G2564.259.312.328.288.29926.6%6.2%14.9%88.4106.67.1%52.4%42.9%
90 days46135.261.333.345.308.30923.7%9.6%16.7%87.7106.65.7%42.0%44.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 88 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 33%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 2%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.158.200.158.170.25020.0%5.0%15.2%81.3100.80.0%20.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1562.193.242.211.210.23325.8%4.8%13.3%83.3106.60.0%31.0%26.2%
Last 30 G30119.261.303.333.292.27722.7%5.0%13.6%87.3107.73.5%42.4%35.3%
90 days55205.249.312.330.295.29521.5%8.3%15.4%87.8107.73.5%40.8%38.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 142 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 30%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 4%
Luis Lara · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating32Below average
Last 100 pitches15trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.293 / .299results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball95.888.430.064Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.195.816.698Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup88.676.6-45.114Out
Sep 24LHPSinker95.981.322.620Out
Sep 24LHPSinker93.799.1-21.142Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.7100.817.557Out
Sep 22RHPFastball100.074.220.878Single
Sep 22RHPSinker97.594.7-28.071Out
Sep 19LHPSweeper78.377.959.026Out
Sep 18LHPFastball90.687.560.015Out
Sep 18LHPChangeup85.158.6-61.240Single
Sep 18LHPSplitter84.490.16.444Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24511000
Sep 22411001
Sep 19300002
Sep 18311000
Sep 17500011
Sep 16411001
Sep 15412000
Sep 13300001
Sep 11522001
Sep 8511002

Two strikes

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPwith two strikes
Quinn Mathews with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider23%32%28.3%15.9%21.6%
Fastball39%32%22.4%15.0%18.6%
Changeup17%22%25.9%12.5%18.3%
Curveball13%10%18.8%16.7%21.3%
Sinker9%4%0.0%27.3%17.7%
Luis Lara bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Luis Lara with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.9%41.6%
Whiff%17.2%21.7%
Contact%82.8%78.3%
Chase%36.0%40.0%
wOBA.249.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.3%23.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.304
K%21.7%
BB%8.2%
Whiff%7.0%
Barrel%3.4%
Hard-hit%27.7%
Avg EV87.9

Against left-handers, last 90 days

70 PA
wOBA.281
xwOBA vs this mix.279against pitches like his
RV/100-0.94
Hard-hit%29.1%
K%18.7%
BB%8.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Quinn MathewsLHP · STL vs MIL
5.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.3 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 26.7%27%≤34 strikeouts: 17.5%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.5%15%67 strikeouts: 10.4%10%78 strikeouts: 6.6%7%89+ strikeouts: 6.9%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.4%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%10.8%
Velo87.3
BTB Stuff92
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball39%10593.49.2%
Slider23%8784.811.7%
Changeup17%6783.019.2%
Curveball13%9475.76.7%
Sinker9%9292.85.9%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209610%9%38%.327
Sep 149932%14%4%.231
Sep 89916%10%32%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Luis Lara: every projection we've made →