MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · MIL · batting 3William Contreras
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerNormal
.335wOBA vs LHP.273xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · STLQuinn Mathews
Throws leftBTB Stuff 92Stable
5.0projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Quinn Mathews's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.3″ arm side, +16.4″ rise. William Contreras: wOBA .338 vs league .337 (about even).Fastball 39%Slider: 23% usage, 84.9 mph, -3.2″ arm side, +1.3″ rise. William Contreras: wOBA .314 vs league .314 (about even).Slider 23%Changeup: 17% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. William Contreras: wOBA .310 vs league .310 (about even).Changeup 17%Curveball: 13% usage, 75.6 mph, -9.6″ arm side, -12.2″ rise. William Contreras: wOBA .323 vs league .323 (about even).Curveball 13%Sinker: 9% usage, 92.7 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +12.3″ rise. William Contreras: wOBA .358 vs league .358 (about even).Sinker 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is William Contreras's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

William Contreras's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 81.0 mph at -5°Out: 72.8 mph at 41°Out: 86.5 mph at 0°Single: 78.1 mph at 3°Out: 76.5 mph at -9°Single: 83.3 mph at 12°Out: 81.1 mph at 25°Out: 64.5 mph at -26°Home run: 106.9 mph at 43°Single: 92.7 mph at 8°Out: 104.6 mph at 16°Out: 49.1 mph at -22°Out: 45.3 mph at -64°Out: 86.2 mph at 79°Double: 111.7 mph at 9°Out: 93.4 mph at 1°Single: 95.4 mph at 15°Out: 90.0 mph at 22°Out: 103.7 mph at -32°Out: 91.0 mph at 23°Out: 81.5 mph at 28°Out: 102.3 mph at 15°Out: 88.4 mph at 26°Out: 102.7 mph at 1°Double: 96.0 mph at 36°Home run: 101.0 mph at 26°Out: 50.5 mph at 42°Out: 92.8 mph at -19°Out: 94.7 mph at 40°Single: 104.8 mph at -3°Home run: 109.3 mph at 26°Out: 100.2 mph at 49°Out: 89.9 mph at 37°Out: 105.8 mph at 18°Home run: 102.1 mph at 26°Single: 102.0 mph at 11°Single: 110.1 mph at 6°Out: 101.1 mph at 58°Out: 100.1 mph at 19°Out: 88.2 mph at 82°
45% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.5%62.9%+0.6
2+ total bases36.8%36.0%+0.8
Home run11.8%11.0%+0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

William Contreras against each of Quinn Mathews's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%93.4+5″ / +16″.338.33718.5%17.2%16About league average vs these
Slider23%84.9-3″ / +1″.314.31426.5%28.5%13About league average vs these
Changeup17%83.0+11″ / +4″.310.31026.8%32.6%16About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball13%75.6-10″ / -12″.323.32324.4%26.2%6Little history vs this shape
Sinker9%92.7+11″ / +12″.358.35817.7%16.2%19About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
William Contreras · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.333.500.333.400.5120.0%25.0%33.3%80.9104.60.0%33.3%66.7%
Last 15 G820.188.300.438.313.32215.0%15.0%22.6%92.3105.87.1%50.0%35.7%
Last 30 G1850.341.380.477.389.28612.0%8.0%16.1%90.1108.42.5%47.5%30.0%
90 days4090.241.311.367.331.26614.4%8.9%20.5%88.0112.84.4%35.3%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 68 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 21%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 19%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.231.267.462.360.21126.7%6.7%24.0%78.0106.90.0%10.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1548.286.354.619.445.34922.9%10.4%26.3%90.7111.79.4%46.9%43.8%
Last 30 G2888.307.386.600.435.36620.5%12.5%21.7%91.4111.711.9%44.1%44.1%
90 days66214.229.308.410.322.32917.3%9.8%20.1%90.6111.79.7%45.5%35.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 154 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 21%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.250.316.438.368.27421.1%10.5%25.8%78.6106.90.0%15.4%30.8%
Last 15 G1568.259.338.569.407.34220.6%11.8%25.2%91.2111.78.7%47.8%41.3%
Last 30 G30138.319.384.555.418.33717.4%10.9%19.7%90.9111.78.1%45.5%38.4%
90 days70304.232.309.397.324.31116.4%9.5%20.2%89.8112.88.1%42.3%32.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 222 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 21%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 13%
William Contreras · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating66Above average
Last 100 pitches67steady
wOBA / xwOBA.322 / .332results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run4/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSweeper82.781.0-5.143Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper83.572.841.307Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup82.686.50.168Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball79.178.13.157Single
Sep 23RHPFastball96.576.5-9.050Error
Sep 22RHPSinker94.683.312.483Single
Sep 22RHPSweeper82.181.125.273Sac fly
Sep 20RHPSlider85.864.5-26.042Double play
Sep 20RHPSinker92.6106.943.733Home run
Sep 19LHPChangeup86.992.78.512Single
Sep 19LHPFastball94.6104.616.641Out
Sep 19RHPSinker98.049.1-22.109Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300010
Sep 23411001
Sep 22411002
Sep 20414111
Sep 19411000
Sep 18512011
Sep 16511001
Sep 15512000
Sep 12514120
Sep 11625100

Two strikes

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPwith two strikes
Quinn Mathews with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider23%32%28.3%15.9%21.6%
Fastball39%32%22.4%15.0%18.6%
Changeup17%22%25.9%12.5%18.3%
Curveball13%10%18.8%16.7%21.3%
Sinker9%4%0.0%27.3%17.7%
William Contreras bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
William Contreras with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%35.5%41.6%
Whiff%19.6%21.7%
Contact%80.4%78.3%
Chase%39.0%40.0%
wOBA.245.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.9%23.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.334
K%16.6%
BB%9.9%
Whiff%9.8%
Barrel%5.6%
Hard-hit%31.2%
Avg EV90.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

88 PA
wOBA.335
xwOBA vs this mix.273against pitches like his
RV/1000.45
Hard-hit%27.6%
K%14.8%
BB%9.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Quinn MathewsLHP · STL vs MIL
5.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.3 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 26.7%27%≤34 strikeouts: 17.5%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.5%15%67 strikeouts: 10.4%10%78 strikeouts: 6.6%7%89+ strikeouts: 6.9%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.4%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%10.8%
Velo87.3
BTB Stuff92
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball39%10593.49.2%
Slider23%8784.811.7%
Changeup17%6783.019.2%
Curveball13%9475.76.7%
Sinker9%9292.85.9%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209610%9%38%.327
Sep 149932%14%4%.231
Sep 89916%10%32%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.William Contreras: every projection we've made →