MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 26, 2026
6:15 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PHI · batting 7Bryson Stott
Bats leftTalent grade BContactNormal
.340wOBA vs RHP.350xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · TBGriffin Jax
Throws rightBTB Stuff 112Trending Up
4.9projected K28%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Griffin Jax's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 25% usage, 87.0 mph, -14.0″ arm side, -1.6″ rise. Bryson Stott: wOBA .320 vs league .314 (about even).Sweeper 25%Sinker: 24% usage, 95.1 mph, +16.9″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Bryson Stott: wOBA .350 vs league .345 (about even).Sinker 24%Changeup: 23% usage, 90.5 mph, +16.0″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Bryson Stott: wOBA .315 vs league .309 (about even).Changeup 23%Fastball: 19% usage, 95.6 mph, +8.3″ arm side, +18.1″ rise. Bryson Stott: wOBA .345 vs league .340 (about even).Fastball 19%Curveball: 9% usage, 84.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -14.4″ rise. Bryson Stott: wOBA .282 vs league .277 (about even).Curveball 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Bryson Stott's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Bryson Stott's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 86.4 mph at -21°Out: 107.2 mph at 6°Double: 107.4 mph at 15°Double: 93.9 mph at 24°Out: 73.4 mph at -29°Single: 88.7 mph at 18°Out: 101.5 mph at -26°Out: 102.3 mph at -21°Out: 96.6 mph at 45°Out: 71.4 mph at 2°Out: 98.0 mph at 25°Out: 87.4 mph at 59°Single: 85.3 mph at 19°Out: 80.1 mph at -5°Out: 81.5 mph at 55°Out: 79.2 mph at 9°Double: 100.9 mph at 23°Out: 104.6 mph at 21°Out: 33.8 mph at 14°Out: 87.1 mph at 7°Double: 77.2 mph at 41°Single: 98.1 mph at -6°Out: 92.3 mph at -19°Out: 88.4 mph at 28°Out: 80.7 mph at 0°Out: 96.7 mph at 6°Out: 91.6 mph at 40°Out: 96.2 mph at 33°Out: 86.2 mph at -1°Single: 82.7 mph at 21°Double: 100.6 mph at 21°Single: 93.4 mph at 18°Out: 85.0 mph at 59°Out: 89.4 mph at -17°Out: 63.9 mph at -40°Out: 94.4 mph at 0°Out: 81.6 mph at 33°Out: 88.3 mph at -18°Out: 84.1 mph at -18°Out: 76.4 mph at 63°
30% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.4%59.0%-0.5
2+ total bases31.0%30.9%+0.0
Home run7.7%6.8%+0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+0.7
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+1.0
Home run
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.9

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Bryson Stott against each of Griffin Jax's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper25%87.0-14″ / -2″.320.31421.0%27.9%8About league average vs these
Sinker24%95.1+17″ / +11″.350.34513.9%14.5%43About league average vs these
Changeup23%90.5+16″ / +3″.315.30918.9%24.4%44About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball19%95.6+8″ / +18″.345.34018.2%18.9%60About league average vs these
Curveball9%84.5-5″ / -14″.282.27728.0%36.0%8Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Bryson Stott · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.273.429.455.393.3867.1%21.4%14.3%90.1107.40.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1539.194.342.290.304.33710.3%15.4%15.0%86.3107.43.6%25.0%25.0%
Last 30 G2976.200.307.308.285.35115.8%11.8%18.0%87.8109.95.6%25.9%37.0%
90 days75225.263.368.374.341.35615.6%13.8%17.7%89.5110.53.8%36.1%36.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 158 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 27%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.167.286.167.229.25828.6%14.3%27.3%94.7102.30.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1020.278.350.389.375.30620.0%10.0%9.4%92.1102.30.0%42.9%42.9%
Last 30 G1939.167.205.250.224.23623.1%5.1%9.7%89.0105.80.0%39.3%32.1%
90 days4281.250.321.403.332.29318.5%9.9%14.9%86.2105.91.8%31.6%40.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 23%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.235.381.353.338.34314.3%19.0%18.8%91.4107.40.0%42.9%35.7%
Last 15 G1559.224.345.327.328.32613.6%13.6%13.0%88.3107.42.4%31.0%31.0%
Last 30 G30115.188.272.287.264.31118.3%9.6%15.3%88.2109.93.7%30.5%35.4%
90 days76306.260.355.382.339.34016.3%12.7%16.9%88.6110.53.3%34.9%37.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 215 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 26%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 8%
Bryson Stott · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating76Above average
Last 100 pitches83trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.336 / .343results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPSinker96.886.4-21.093Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.8107.26.586Out
Sep 23RHPFastball92.2107.415.688Double
Sep 23RHPChangeup84.093.924.217Double
Sep 23RHPSinker99.273.4-29.055Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper83.688.718.702Single
Sep 22LHPSinker93.4101.5-26.138Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper82.4102.3-21.172Out
Sep 20RHPCutter88.396.645.021Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup86.571.42.152Out
Sep 20RHPFastball92.298.025.578Out
Sep 20RHPSinker92.487.459.034Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400011
Sep 23424010
Sep 22411010
Sep 20500010
Sep 19411002
Sep 18412000
Sep 17423000
Sep 16500020
Sep 15400001
Sep 13534001

Two strikes

Griffin Jax TB · RHPwith two strikes
Griffin Jax with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup23%28%45.1%36.2%18.6%
Fastball19%27%22.5%17.6%18.0%
Sinker24%18%9.1%28.3%16.9%
Sweeper25%18%30.0%13.6%19.3%
Curveball9%9%45.5%26.1%20.1%
Bryson Stott bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Bryson Stott with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%31.7%41.0%
Whiff%17.6%21.3%
Contact%82.4%78.7%
Chase%44.9%39.6%
wOBA.263.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.3%21.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.335
K%16.8%
BB%12.1%
Whiff%7.4%
Barrel%2.7%
Hard-hit%24.6%
Avg EV88.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

222 PA
wOBA.340
xwOBA vs this mix.350against pitches like his
RV/1000.37
Hard-hit%25.6%
K%16.6%
BB%12.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Griffin JaxRHP · TB vs PHI
4.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 19.8 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 27.7%28%≤34 strikeouts: 17.8%18%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.3%14%67 strikeouts: 10.1%10%78 strikeouts: 6.2%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.5%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 55% (red bars) · under: 45%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%27.7%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%13.2%
Velo91.1
BTB Stuff112
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper25%11387.011.0%
Sinker24%11495.13.6%
Changeup23%11390.423.8%
Fastball19%11395.615.0%
Curveball9%10384.513.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207426%14%16%.216
Sep 156741%15%12%.126
Sep 96611%6%33%.212

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Griffin Jax TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Bryson Stott: every projection we've made →