MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 26, 2026
6:15 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PHI · batting 8J.T. Realmuto
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedCold
.278wOBA vs RHP.309xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · TBGriffin Jax
Throws rightBTB Stuff 112Trending Up
4.9projected K28%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Griffin Jax's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 25% usage, 87.0 mph, -14.0″ arm side, -1.6″ rise. J.T. Realmuto: wOBA .258 vs league .272 (about even).Sweeper 25%Sinker: 24% usage, 95.1 mph, +16.9″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. J.T. Realmuto: wOBA .331 vs league .346 (about even).Sinker 24%Changeup: 23% usage, 90.5 mph, +16.0″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. J.T. Realmuto: wOBA .310 vs league .324 (about even).Changeup 23%Fastball: 19% usage, 95.6 mph, +8.3″ arm side, +18.1″ rise. J.T. Realmuto: wOBA .325 vs league .340 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 19%Curveball: 9% usage, 84.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -14.4″ rise. J.T. Realmuto: wOBA .262 vs league .276 (about even).Curveball 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is J.T. Realmuto's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

J.T. Realmuto's last 40 balls in playHit (6)Out (34)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 97.1 mph at 29°Out: 83.6 mph at -4°Out: 83.9 mph at 55°Out: 71.3 mph at -1°Out: 106.0 mph at 5°Out: 101.5 mph at 45°Out: 79.6 mph at -6°Out: 94.3 mph at 24°Out: 98.6 mph at 21°Out: 93.7 mph at 32°Out: 63.6 mph at 58°Out: 89.9 mph at 30°Out: 81.7 mph at 64°Out: 82.7 mph at 40°Out: 48.5 mph at 12°Out: 88.0 mph at 13°Out: 92.0 mph at -15°Out: 100.1 mph at 11°Double: 98.8 mph at 29°Home run: 105.2 mph at 24°Out: 92.6 mph at -7°Single: 95.2 mph at 15°Single: 93.5 mph at 6°Single: 90.0 mph at -19°Out: 93.6 mph at -11°Out: 98.3 mph at 35°Out: 64.9 mph at -13°Single: 90.6 mph at -21°Out: 56.3 mph at -6°Out: 99.4 mph at 30°Out: 95.1 mph at 29°Out: 102.9 mph at 9°Out: 90.0 mph at 51°Out: 81.5 mph at 84°Out: 91.8 mph at -23°Out: 79.7 mph at 80°Out: 61.8 mph at -37°Out: 102.2 mph at 26°Out: 64.6 mph at 84°Out: 94.5 mph at 28°
33% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot15% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit52.8%55.2%-2.4
2+ total bases28.7%30.3%-1.7
Home run8.9%9.1%-0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.9
Pitch mix
-0.6
Bullpen
-0.7
Park
+0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+1.1
Home run
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+1.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

J.T. Realmuto against each of Griffin Jax's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper25%87.0-14″ / -2″.258.27227.9%30.5%9About league average vs these
Sinker24%95.1+17″ / +11″.331.34612.3%11.4%37About league average vs these
Changeup23%90.5+16″ / +3″.310.32418.1%19.1%27About league average vs these
Fastball19%95.6+8″ / +18″.325.34022.0%20.8%49About league average vs these
Curveball9%84.5-5″ / -14″.262.27629.4%31.8%8About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
J.T. Realmuto · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.000.154.000.108.20838.5%15.4%25.0%88.198.60.0%33.3%50.0%
Last 15 G1435.188.257.312.256.27431.4%8.6%27.6%87.3105.214.3%38.1%52.4%
Last 30 G2875.209.280.358.281.31224.0%9.3%25.2%88.8106.710.0%44.0%44.0%
90 days59179.209.274.331.273.30724.6%7.3%22.4%88.8111.26.8%41.5%35.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 118 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 22%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.000.286.000.200.31028.6%28.6%25.0%95.7106.00.0%66.7%0.0%
Last 15 G1124.000.167.000.117.27229.2%12.5%21.4%90.0106.00.0%30.8%23.1%
Last 30 G2043.118.256.206.223.32920.9%14.0%18.4%89.4106.03.7%29.6%37.0%
90 days3265.212.323.346.304.33321.5%10.8%18.6%91.9109.42.5%42.5%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 40 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 20%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.000.200.000.140.24335.0%20.0%25.0%90.7106.00.0%44.4%33.3%
Last 15 G1559.115.220.192.199.27330.5%10.2%25.0%88.4106.08.8%35.3%41.2%
Last 30 G30118.178.271.307.260.31822.9%11.0%22.8%89.0106.77.8%39.0%41.6%
90 days63244.209.287.335.281.31423.8%8.2%21.5%89.6111.25.7%41.8%36.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 158 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 22%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 9%
J.T. Realmuto · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating54Average
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.281 / .320running 39 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPCutter92.197.129.434Out
Sep 24RHPSinker96.283.6-4.135Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.883.955.025Out
Sep 23RHPCutter87.871.3-1.085Out
Sep 23LHPSinker95.8106.05.579Out
Sep 22LHPSinker90.2101.545.070Out
Sep 22LHPSinker94.579.6-6.122Out
Sep 19RHPCutter89.294.324.217Out
Sep 19RHPFastball96.298.621.409Out
Sep 18LHPChangeup85.193.732.279Out
Sep 18LHPCutter90.063.658.003Out
Sep 18RHPFastball98.889.930.094Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400011
Sep 23400001
Sep 22400011
Sep 20400022
Sep 19400002
Sep 18400000
Sep 16500012
Sep 15400001
Sep 13537101
Sep 12222000

Two strikes

Griffin Jax TB · RHPwith two strikes
Griffin Jax with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup23%28%45.1%36.2%18.6%
Fastball19%27%22.5%17.6%18.0%
Sinker24%18%9.1%28.3%16.9%
Sweeper25%18%30.0%13.6%19.3%
Curveball9%9%45.5%26.1%20.1%
J.T. Realmuto bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
J.T. Realmuto with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.1%42.4%
Whiff%21.7%22.2%
Contact%78.3%77.8%
Chase%36.6%39.8%
wOBA.228.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.2%20.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.294
K%23.7%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%9.9%
Barrel%4.2%
Hard-hit%27.4%
Avg EV89.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

179 PA
wOBA.278
xwOBA vs this mix.309against pitches like his
RV/100-0.81
Hard-hit%27.2%
K%24.3%
BB%8.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Griffin JaxRHP · TB vs PHI
4.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 19.8 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 27.7%28%≤34 strikeouts: 17.8%18%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.3%14%67 strikeouts: 10.1%10%78 strikeouts: 6.2%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.5%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 55% (red bars) · under: 45%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%27.7%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%13.2%
Velo91.1
BTB Stuff112
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper25%11387.011.0%
Sinker24%11495.13.6%
Changeup23%11390.423.8%
Fastball19%11395.615.0%
Curveball9%10384.513.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207426%14%16%.216
Sep 156741%15%12%.126
Sep 96611%6%33%.212

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Griffin Jax TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.J.T. Realmuto: every projection we've made →