MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 26, 2026
6:15 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PHI · batting 9Justin Crawford
Bats leftTalent grade DPowerCold
.316wOBA vs RHP.292xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · TBGriffin Jax
Throws rightBTB Stuff 112Trending Up
4.9projected K28%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Griffin Jax's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 25% usage, 87.0 mph, -14.0″ arm side, -1.6″ rise. Justin Crawford: wOBA .309 vs league .314 (about even).Sweeper 25%Sinker: 24% usage, 95.1 mph, +16.9″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Justin Crawford: wOBA .340 vs league .345 (about even).Sinker 24%Changeup: 23% usage, 90.5 mph, +16.0″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Justin Crawford: wOBA .304 vs league .309 (about even).Changeup 23%Fastball: 19% usage, 95.6 mph, +8.3″ arm side, +18.1″ rise. Justin Crawford: wOBA .335 vs league .340 (about even).Fastball 19%Curveball: 9% usage, 84.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -14.4″ rise. Justin Crawford: wOBA .271 vs league .277 (about even).Curveball 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Justin Crawford's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Justin Crawford's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 97.6 mph at 8°Single: 96.8 mph at 10°Out: 75.3 mph at 49°Out: 86.4 mph at -46°Out: 80.2 mph at -3°Triple: 93.0 mph at 20°Out: 90.1 mph at -26°Out: 59.5 mph at 45°Out: 69.5 mph at -20°Single: 65.7 mph at -46°Out: 33.9 mph at -20°Out: 89.9 mph at 46°Double: 102.9 mph at 24°Out: 89.9 mph at 28°Out: 74.4 mph at -60°Single: 90.7 mph at 16°Out: 73.9 mph at -45°Out: 87.9 mph at 3°Out: 102.0 mph at -6°Out: 73.8 mph at -42°Home run: 104.7 mph at 27°Out: 70.3 mph at -22°Single: 96.5 mph at 15°Single: 77.5 mph at -61°Out: 56.3 mph at 23°Out: 100.3 mph at -18°Single: 66.2 mph at -15°Out: 101.8 mph at 9°Double: 96.7 mph at 21°Out: 89.2 mph at 0°Out: 94.3 mph at -26°Out: 103.5 mph at -28°Out: 98.1 mph at 21°Out: 99.5 mph at -1°Out: 82.0 mph at -31°Out: 96.3 mph at -18°Single: 87.1 mph at -8°Single: 96.7 mph at -17°Out: 70.6 mph at -9°Out: 78.7 mph at -12°
35% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.1%57.7%-0.6
2+ total bases27.5%27.6%-0.1
Home run6.8%6.3%+0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+0.7
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+0.9
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Justin Crawford against each of Griffin Jax's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper25%87.0-14″ / -2″.309.31418.2%27.9%6Little history vs this shape
Sinker24%95.1+17″ / +11″.340.3458.5%14.5%32About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup23%90.5+16″ / +3″.304.30914.4%24.4%24About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball19%95.6+8″ / +18″.335.34011.5%18.9%45About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball9%84.5-5″ / -14″.271.27724.6%36.0%8Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Justin Crawford · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.182.182.364.227.18536.4%0.0%9.1%84.697.60.0%28.6%42.9%
Last 15 G1537.212.250.303.256.27118.9%5.4%14.9%85.0103.50.0%37.0%37.0%
Last 30 G3081.243.295.300.279.27914.8%7.4%12.9%85.8104.60.0%40.3%25.8%
90 days66186.277.311.355.314.29512.9%5.4%12.2%86.0109.20.7%40.7%28.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 150 balls in play
Ground 65%Line drive 17%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G33.000.000.000.000.05833.3%0.0%0.0%78.086.40.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G78.375.375.875.519.49412.5%0.0%6.7%84.6104.728.6%28.6%28.6%
Last 30 G78.375.375.875.519.49412.5%0.0%6.7%84.6104.728.6%28.6%28.6%
90 days1722.400.455.600.457.38813.6%4.5%13.2%80.4104.711.8%17.6%35.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 17 balls in play
Ground 65%Line drive 18%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.143.143.286.179.15835.7%0.0%8.0%83.297.60.0%22.2%33.3%
Last 15 G1545.244.273.415.305.31217.8%4.4%13.4%85.0104.75.9%35.3%35.3%
Last 30 G3089.256.302.359.302.29914.6%6.7%12.3%85.7104.72.9%39.1%26.1%
90 days67208.290.327.382.330.30513.0%5.3%12.3%85.4109.21.8%38.3%29.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 167 balls in play
Ground 65%Line drive 17%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 4%
Justin Crawford · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating24Poor
Last 100 pitches55trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.306 / .290running 16 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPCutter90.197.68.639Out
Sep 23RHPFastball92.596.810.708Single
Sep 23RHPChangeup83.875.349.075Out
Sep 22LHPSinker92.586.4-46.132Out
Sep 20RHPCutter90.280.2-3.111Out
Sep 20RHPFastball96.393.020.287Triple
Sep 20RHPCutter89.990.1-26.060Out
Sep 19RHPCutter90.059.545.153Out
Sep 19LHPSinker97.869.5-20.042Out
Sep 17RHPCutter90.965.7-46.227Single
Sep 17RHPCutter91.333.9-20–Sac bunt
Sep 17RHPSplitter80.889.946.004Sac fly
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24200001
Sep 23211000
Sep 22200001
Sep 20413001
Sep 19400002
Sep 17411000
Sep 16412010
Sep 13411010
Sep 12314100
Sep 11211000

Two strikes

Griffin Jax TB · RHPwith two strikes
Griffin Jax with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup23%28%45.1%36.2%18.6%
Fastball19%27%22.5%17.6%18.0%
Sinker24%18%9.1%28.3%16.9%
Sweeper25%18%30.0%13.6%19.3%
Curveball9%9%45.5%26.1%20.1%
Justin Crawford bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Justin Crawford with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%35.5%41.0%
Whiff%18.0%21.3%
Contact%82.0%78.7%
Chase%39.9%39.6%
wOBA.247.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.5%21.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDPower type
wOBA.323
K%14.6%
BB%6.2%
Whiff%6.9%
Barrel%2.8%
Hard-hit%29.2%
Avg EV85.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

183 PA
wOBA.316
xwOBA vs this mix.292against pitches like his
RV/100-0.59
Hard-hit%31.4%
K%13.6%
BB%5.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Griffin JaxRHP · TB vs PHI
4.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 19.8 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 27.7%28%≤34 strikeouts: 17.8%18%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.3%14%67 strikeouts: 10.1%10%78 strikeouts: 6.2%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.5%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 55% (red bars) · under: 45%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%27.7%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%13.2%
Velo91.1
BTB Stuff112
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper25%11387.011.0%
Sinker24%11495.13.6%
Changeup23%11390.423.8%
Fastball19%11395.615.0%
Curveball9%10384.513.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207426%14%16%.216
Sep 156741%15%12%.126
Sep 96611%6%33%.212

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Griffin Jax TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Justin Crawford: every projection we've made →