MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 26, 2026
6:15 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PHI · batting 4Luis Arraez
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedHot
.310wOBA vs RHP.312xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · TBGriffin Jax
Throws rightBTB Stuff 112Trending Up
4.9projected K28%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Griffin Jax's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 25% usage, 87.0 mph, -14.0″ arm side, -1.6″ rise. Luis Arraez: wOBA .307 vs league .314 (about even).Sweeper 25%Sinker: 24% usage, 95.1 mph, +16.9″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Luis Arraez: wOBA .338 vs league .345 (about even).Sinker 24%Changeup: 23% usage, 90.5 mph, +16.0″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Luis Arraez: wOBA .302 vs league .309 (about even).Changeup 23%Fastball: 19% usage, 95.6 mph, +8.3″ arm side, +18.1″ rise. Luis Arraez: wOBA .332 vs league .340 (about even).Fastball 19%Curveball: 9% usage, 84.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -14.4″ rise. Luis Arraez: wOBA .270 vs league .277 (about even).Curveball 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Luis Arraez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Luis Arraez's last 40 balls in playHit (8)Out (32)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 97.3 mph at -5°Out: 97.2 mph at 4°Out: 87.6 mph at 28°Out: 84.1 mph at 57°Out: 98.8 mph at 9°Out: 91.4 mph at 5°Out: 88.6 mph at 73°Single: 97.9 mph at 14°Out: 88.2 mph at 36°Out: 90.0 mph at 27°Single: 89.8 mph at -3°Out: 68.9 mph at 27°Single: 95.0 mph at -3°Out: 97.2 mph at 39°Out: 81.6 mph at 31°Out: 91.5 mph at 3°Out: 97.9 mph at 39°Single: 88.6 mph at 15°Out: 72.3 mph at -15°Single: 91.2 mph at 13°Out: 77.3 mph at -30°Out: 67.1 mph at 5°Out: 95.1 mph at 18°Out: 84.1 mph at -4°Out: 96.9 mph at 16°Out: 94.9 mph at 18°Out: 90.9 mph at 3°Double: 92.7 mph at 18°Out: 67.5 mph at -4°Double: 78.4 mph at 9°Double: 91.5 mph at 5°Out: 85.0 mph at -13°Out: 97.5 mph at -1°Out: 40.1 mph at 30°Out: 83.9 mph at -17°Out: 74.2 mph at 79°Out: 88.9 mph at 35°Out: 86.6 mph at 40°Out: 90.5 mph at -19°Out: 86.3 mph at 40°
25% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot20% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit72.1%71.9%+0.2
2+ total bases40.9%40.4%+0.5
Home run5.3%4.6%+0.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+0.8
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Luis Arraez against each of Griffin Jax's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper25%87.0-14″ / -2″.307.3146.3%27.9%6Little history vs this shape
Sinker24%95.1+17″ / +11″.338.3453.5%14.5%53About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup23%90.5+16″ / +3″.302.3097.9%24.4%33About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball19%95.6+8″ / +18″.332.3404.6%18.9%62About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball9%84.5-5″ / -14″.270.2778.9%36.0%10About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Luis Arraez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.100.091.100.082.2419.1%0.0%0.0%86.998.80.0%30.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1233.192.303.192.242.3306.1%12.1%0.0%87.498.83.8%30.8%42.3%
Last 30 G2565.164.231.164.189.2904.6%7.7%1.6%86.598.81.8%17.9%35.7%
90 days68209.280.316.386.307.3134.3%5.7%3.9%86.6104.43.2%17.2%41.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 186 balls in play
Ground 28%Line drive 25%Fly ball 37%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.400.400.400.360.4310.0%0.0%0.0%92.697.90.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1331.310.355.448.352.3250.0%6.5%0.0%84.597.90.0%17.2%31.0%
Last 30 G2452.360.385.460.372.3091.9%3.8%3.6%81.8101.50.0%14.3%32.7%
90 days55106.333.358.402.347.3125.7%2.8%6.9%82.4101.50.0%15.6%34.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 96 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 23%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.250.238.250.214.3314.8%0.0%0.0%89.898.80.0%35.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1564.255.328.327.295.3273.1%9.4%0.0%85.898.81.8%23.6%36.4%
Last 30 G30117.257.299.305.271.2983.4%6.0%2.4%84.3101.51.0%16.2%34.3%
90 days74315.299.330.392.321.3134.8%4.8%4.9%85.2104.42.1%16.7%39.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 282 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 25%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 10%
Luis Arraez · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating58Average
Last 100 pitches50trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.324 / .326results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPSinker95.297.3-5.251Force out
Sep 24LHPSinker98.097.24.461Out
Sep 24LHPSlider89.087.628.076Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.084.157.027Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.198.89.564Out
Sep 23LHPSlider88.591.45.396Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.788.673.005Out
Sep 22LHPSlider83.097.914.873Single
Sep 22LHPFastball92.788.236.023Out
Sep 22RHPFastball97.190.027.118Out
Sep 22LHPFastball95.789.8-3.243Single
Sep 20RHPChangeup86.068.927.885Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300000
Sep 23400000
Sep 22422000
Sep 20511000
Sep 19522001
Sep 18400000
Sep 17400011
Sep 16512030
Sep 15424010
Sep 13500000

Two strikes

Griffin Jax TB · RHPwith two strikes
Griffin Jax with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup23%28%45.1%36.2%18.6%
Fastball19%27%22.5%17.6%18.0%
Sinker24%18%9.1%28.3%16.9%
Sweeper25%18%30.0%13.6%19.3%
Curveball9%9%45.5%26.1%20.1%
Luis Arraez bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Luis Arraez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%20.6%41.0%
Whiff%9.4%21.3%
Contact%90.6%78.7%
Chase%47.2%39.6%
wOBA.273.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes9.7%21.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.322
K%5.5%
BB%4.9%
Whiff%3.5%
Barrel%1.9%
Hard-hit%15.5%
Avg EV85.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

209 PA
wOBA.310
xwOBA vs this mix.312against pitches like his
RV/100-0.50
Hard-hit%16.3%
K%6.2%
BB%4.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Griffin JaxRHP · TB vs PHI
4.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 19.8 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 27.7%28%≤34 strikeouts: 17.8%18%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.3%14%67 strikeouts: 10.1%10%78 strikeouts: 6.2%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.5%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 55% (red bars) · under: 45%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%27.7%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%13.2%
Velo91.1
BTB Stuff112
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper25%11387.011.0%
Sinker24%11495.13.6%
Changeup23%11390.423.8%
Fastball19%11395.615.0%
Curveball9%10384.513.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207426%14%16%.216
Sep 156741%15%12%.126
Sep 96611%6%33%.212

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Griffin Jax TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Luis Arraez: every projection we've made →